Trading Blog: TnT Group

Mark here.

We had Initial Jobless Claims today and they came out 434K vs 450K. The number was good for stocks but the ES ( mini future) only managed to rally 2 handles and then sold off on the open.

We have the dollar lower today but the stock markets are also lower. Gold and oil are higher on the day with gold outperforming oil. My only thought is that we have people getting out of positions before this coming Tuesday and Wednesday. I can’t imagine anyone putting on new positions with two trading days left before the elections and the Fed.  There was a 7Y bond auction today and it came out good for the market. Bonds are trading there highs as i type this.

Levels I am paying attention too…….

The ES ( mini future ) has it’s 20 day moving average coming in at 1165.50. I don’t like buying it for the fact that it has moved up with the market trading sideways. I am thinking about selling the ES if we were to have a day settle below it. I still have 1134.75 and 1120.5 as good daily support.

If  the 30Y bonds (ZB) can have a daily settle below 129.05 I think the market can trade much lower.

Mark here.

Today we had CPI, Advanced Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, and U. of Michigan Confidence come out. All numbers except for U. of Michigan came out better than expected. We also had Ben Bernanke speak today.

The markets continue to watch and trade off the dollar. The stock markets rallied off the 7:30 numbers but quickly sold off when the dollar rallied. Commodities followed the same pattern. 30Y bonds sold off on the number and could not rally when stocks came off. With a bad auction yesterday I’m not surprised that they are week today.

Levels I am paying attention to……….

The ES ( mini future) broke through my 1160.00 resistance. The 20 day moving average is 1145.50 which should be good support first time down. I also have 1134.75 and 1120.50 as support.

Hello everyone Mark here.

We had a lot of numbers that came out today. Instead of going over them one by one I’ll save us some time and just tell you that they were all better for the stock market.

Compared to the last few weeks today has been a  little crazy. With all the good numbers we had today the stock markets got off to a good start but could not hold their gains. If your wondering why, all you have to do is look at the dollar. Since there is all this talk about QE2 stocks have been going inverse the dollar for weeks now. So today when the dollar started to rally the stock markets all sold off. The 30Y bonds sold off 1 26/32 on the number but have since retraced more than half those losses.

Levels I am paying attention to…………

Oil ( CL futures) has broken out to the upside. I’m looking for it to test its 200 day moving average at 8059. If we get a daily settle above that level and can hold above  it oil could go and test 8353.

Last week the ES (mini future) held its daily support at 1119.50 and have since made a new high above 1144.00. The only resistance I have left is 1160.00. If we get above this level my target would be the highs of the year at 1206.00. I still have 1119.50 as strong support.

Mark here.

Today we had PPI, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed for numbers. PPI ex food and energy came out as expected. Initial claims was 450k vs. an expected 459k and continuing was 4485k vs an expected 4464k. Although the revised number on continuing was much worse 4569k vs 4478k. Philadelphia fed number was -.7 vs an expected .5. These number were not good or bad enough to move the markets.

Looking at the markets there is not much going on. The Russell 2000 had been week to the S&P for most of the day. Oil is lower from yesterdays settle with the dollar not doing much all day and  30Y bonds are  25/32 lower. For the most part there is not much going today.

Levels I am paying attention to……….

The Russell 2000 ( mini future) has double topped at 652.10. A daily settle below 639.70 would target 627.30 to the downside.

A daily settle below 1110.00 in the  ES ( mini future) would target 1100.00. We have to be careful with the 200 day moving average coming in at 1103.75.

Good Luck Trading

Good afternoon everyone.  This Mark and I am back from vacation. Lets look at today’s market.

To start we had Trade Balance, Initial Jobless and Continuing claims at 7:30 this morning.  Initial Claims came out a little better 451,000 vs and expected 470,000. Continuing Claims came out a little worse 4478K vs 4450K.  Later in the day we had a 30Y bond auction. The yield came in at 3.82.

The stock markets liked the 7:30 numbers the ES (mini Futures) rallied from 1103.50 to 11120.00. I had 1107.50 ( 200 day moving average) and 1114.50 as resistance. They have since come all the way back. Bonds did not do much on the number. They sold off some but came right back. The bond auction came out at a yield of 3.82 and that made the 30Y bond sell off. They are down 16/32 since the auction.

Levels I am paying attention to………..

The ES (mini Future) is sitting near its 200 day moving average at 1107.50. If we have a daily settle above this level I think the market can trade higher. My next big level of resistance is 1129.50.

The Euro still has resistance at 129.32.  If we were to settle above this level it could make a push for 131.77 area.

Good Luck Trading