Trading Blog: TnT Group

Pretty interesting video. This was posted on youtube about a month ago, so many of you may have seen it, but for those that haven’t it is quite interesting. The video may be a bit over the top, however we have seen what can happen in these markets and with everything that the is happening in the world and what our government is doing these results are  not out of the realm of possibility.

I receive Bill Gross’ Investment Outlook in my email every time he comes out with a new one on Pimco’s website. The newest one he put out is an amazing piece on his thoughts about numerous topics including Americans blindness towards the ever increasing deficit, the ultimate destruction of our future generations due to our selfish spending, and how we do not realize the effects of a lower dollar on our wealth.

Click on the link below to see the entire article.

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/OffWithOurHeads.aspx

Bill Gross is very forthright in his views. Brian and I have had many conversations about the exact notion Bill Gross is explaining when he goes into the fact that we think we are all richer when the stock market goes up by 10% but the dollar is depreciating at the same time, basically wiping out that appreciation in the stock market.

People (because it is not that visible to most) tend to forget that when the dollar goes down we are losing wealth and purchasing power. Because we got into the mess of becoming much more of a service country instead of  the manufacturing country we once were we need to import most of our items which adds to the problem.

I am glad someone, especially someone with such a strong name as Bill Gross, came out and said our future is in trouble. Everyone wants to get out of this mess right now, including Washington, because it does not look good on them if we are in this for a while. No one is taking into account the absolute shit storm we are creating for future generations. Trillions of dollars in the hole is going to take its toll, and it is going to to hit hard at some point.  If not now, then our children and possibly their children will.

I am moving to Canada…

Did they do QE or not? Did Japan intervene or not?

Rumors and all other types of nonsense are starting to bother the hell out of me.  It’s like a battle back and forth between countries of who swings the lowest.  Impossible to tell who is winning but someone definitely is and easy to get beat up trying to do anything you think is right.  We’re basically back to the, if I sell it here, it’s automatically 10 ticks against me game, you’re right, really right, but having to take on unnecessary risk because of what you did in the market.

In the overnight hours, there was a RUMOR once again, that Japan intervened.  Looking at a chart, the Yen got slammed 150 ticks and much like every move lately, it was right back within the hour.  Kinda like how the US dollar rallied 100 something ticks on China raising rates earlier in the week.  What happens the next day?  Some BS speculative RUMOR comes out about QE and the dollar gives back the entire rally.  I mean, come on man!  What’s real?

Alright, now I can get to what I’m supposed to be talking about.  I think the dollar is cheap here, but again, can’t really get long it long term from fear of getting blown out on a rumor.  Watch Gold, it tells a great story.

Have a good one.

Andy Turner here on a Monday.

The dollar is looking to hold onto the gains it made late Friday in after hours trading.  Although stock index futures were higher going into the open, those gains were quickly erased.

Oil gave some signs of life too but finally rolled over with the dollar holding the 83 even area.

I wanted to see the S&P mini test the 1103 area last week but it doesn’t look like that is in the works anymore.  Add in the fact that the Euro/Yen cross looked  like it would test the lows made in June today, it makes me think this is a very sick market and we will be testing the aforementioned 1050 before 1103 trades again.

Good Afternoon…….. Time for Brian Tehako’s viewpoint on the market.

TODAY WAS NO FUN!!!!

Today I saw the curve being very sensitive to the dollar.  I know some days this works and some days it doesn’t… But today was sick how it worked.  But no matter if they wanted to buy the curve or sell the curve, the market direction in the debt market is up.  This rally is getting real crazy.  WHO WANTS THESE RATES?

I do not have a problem if the debt wants to rally because the equities are getting the beatdown they deserve, but the things rallied today.  Not only did they rally today, but the good old USA stocks rallied stronger while the dollar is getting put in the woodshed out back.  This stuff confuses me.

So today the dollar goes down……. Buy debt (OK, I can see that) , Buy commodities (Maybe, but even if debt is going up), Buy equities (COME ON PEOPLE).

HOW CAN EVERYTHING IN THE WORLD GO UP????????  WHERE DOES THIS MONEY COME FROM?????

I think the equities are a short…….. I am short, I will stay short, and I may even get shorter!!!!

On the currency front…….. I think this is a risk market kids…….. Watch the Euro/Yen….. It’s your DADDY!!!!

Have a great trading weeek……. Tomorrow is a big number day……. Mr. Turner will update you on all those numbers.  Today we had nothing even worth talking about.

Remember….. No drinking and trading.

Russell hit its target over night and traded through it a few handles.  During the pre-open there was a sharp sell off in Equity futures possibly off a strong dollar.  What initially looked like a dollar move quickly turned into what seemed like a risk allocation type play and on the open equities pared their loses.  We’ve basically sat in the same tight range since the open.  Can’t really say that an appetite for risk has re-entered the market or some short covering took place….we’ll have to wait and see.

Hi everyone. This is Mark and I am filling in today on the blog. With the dollar screaming higher today, everyone is taking off there risky trades. Both European and U.S. stock markets are down, the euro has done nothing but sell off all day and is currently down over 300 pips. Oil has followed the stock market lower and as one would guess bonds are sitting near there highs of the day.

Levels I am paying attention to……..

With the Russell 2000 (mini future) settling below 647.70 yesterday my target is 615.50. The low so far today is 620.10.

With the S&P (mini future) holding 1129.50 I thought it could trade down to 1063.00. Looking at the charts today the 1084.00 level will be some support for the market. If this level can not hold 1063.00 would be next.

On Aug 6th the Euro future traded its 200 day moving average. It has sold off since then and the first daily support I have for it is 127.54 – 127.31 area.

This is Justin and I will be filling in today on the blog. Today we saw some of the same things as we did as yesterday (low volumes). Needless to say traders were being cautious in front of today’s rate decision. Stock markets did get hit a bit after a negative Non-Farm productivity report.  U.S. curves were weak all morning. Prior to the rate decision, we did manage to see a September contract high in the 30 yr. bonds at 12926.

And the FOMC decision is……..UNCHANGED!!! Fed stated that the recovery was more modest than expected. In the near term rates will stay exceptionally low. Debt markets and equity markets took this as a positive and both ripped higher. We continued to make new contract highs in the debt futures and equity indexes held their bid. The U.S. dollar was the one casualty of the fed decision. George Washington took back all the gains from the three day rally.

Don’t stand in the way of a runaway train!

Good afternoon everyone. My name is Mark Wasylyszyn and Thursday is my day to blog about the days events.

Today we had the BOE and ECB rate decisions. As expected they both left there rates unchanged and the ECB statement was nothing new. They continue to see moderate growth in Europe. Jobless claims jumped 19,000 to an adjusted rate of 479,000. This is the highest rate since early April. The Bulls cant be happy about this.

Following the jobless number stocks sold off and bonds rallied as one would expect. The dollar rallied of yesterdays lows but did not get above yesterdays highs. If you missed selling the S&P (mini future) on the number the market gave you one chance at 1122.25 which we had as resistance. The market since about 9:30 has done nothing but trade sideways. Everyone is waiting for NFP.

Looking ahead to tomorrow. Two things I will be keeping  an eye on are Average Hourly Earning and Average Weekly Hours. Since everyone is afraid of deflation these numbers could be more important than usual. Especially if the rest of the data come out as expected.

Levels I am paying attention to…….

A daily and more importantly a weekly settle above 1129.5 in the S&P (mini future). The market could make a run at 1165.25. If 1129.5 holds as resistance we can come back down and test 1063.00.

A daily and more importantly a weekly settle above 667.10 in the Russell 2000 (mini future). The market can test 711.00 and has a potential target of 742. If 667.10 holds and we get a settle below 647.70 my target would be 615.5.