Trading Blog: TnT Group

With all of the news that Axel Weber will not become the heir apparent to Jean Claude Trichet there will be continous speculation and rumors of who will take Weber’s spot as the top choice for the European Central Bank’s presidential position. Trichet’s eight year term non renewable tmer will expire this coming October and from what I have read the decision to name his predecessor will come during the Summer months.

It is crucial to begin to learn about the possible candidates now as the rumors will undoubtedly start flying around. Why wouldn’t they? Today, like I said in my webcast, there were rumors of the Saudi King, Abdullah, being dead. Turns out they were just rumors. So if it’s possible for rumors to start about a King being dead then it is not out of the question for the rumor mill to start throwing these gentleman’s names out there sooner than later.

I didn’t go into any detail about any of these possible successors. I basically gave the bare minimum; picture, residence, stance on rate (from what I have read), and a link to more information about them. So if you happen to find out more about them or find contrary information please let me know. Or if there happens to be more candidates out there please leave a comment and I will try to get them up there.

Not a ton of info on here, but it is solely for the purpose to begin recognizing these names and understanding whether they are hawkish or dovish. When the news broke that Weber would not be in line to become the next president at the ECB, the euro made some fairly violent moves. It may do the same when it comes to these names being thrown out on the wires, whether another super hawk, such as Weber, will be in line for the position, or a dovish candidate may push to the front of the line.

– Mario Draghi of Italy

– Stance on Rates: Moderate

- Click For More Information on Draghi

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- Yves Mersch of Luxembourg

- Stance on Rates: Hawkish

- Click For More Information on Mersch

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- Erkki Liikanen of Finland

-Stance on Rates: Moderate to Hawkish

- Click For More Information on Liikanen

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- Vitor Constancio of Portugal

- Stance on Rates: Dovish

- Click For More Information on Constancio

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- Klaus Regling of Germany

- Stance on Rates: N/A

- Click For More Information on Regling

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- Didier Reynders of Belgian

- Stance on Rates: N/A

- Click For More Information on Reynders

I mentioned this link in my webcast and it is pasted below. I wanted to say thank you to P_Ambrus on Twitter for shooting me over this link.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/03/478326/the-ecbs-code-words/

It is a great outline of Trichet’s rhetoric and how the ECB has acted after Trichet has used specific words, including “Strong vigilance” and “Heightened alertness”.

Very interesting article so make sure and take a look at it no matter if you trade the European session or the US session.

My name is Andrew Tehako. I am a trader at TnT Group. I hope everyone is enjoying the blog and the first week of postings we have had.  Please feel free to leave comments on what you are seeing or maybe disagree with what we are talking about. However, please dont purposely bash anyone or leave negtive comments as that is not how we want this blog to run. We however, will not shy away from a good discussion about the markets if you disagree or have other thoughts. We will embrace that.

Looking back at this week there was a lot going on. We had ECB and BOE come out with rate decisions that came out unchanged as expected. Both Canada and US jobs numbers came out and came out negative. Hopefully, these numbers will provide equities with some sort of direction going into next week. Maybe with these bearish numbers traders will see some consistancy in these markets instead of the chop fest that has been occuring. I understand why we have had the choppy trade. There is no denying that people, even some of the best traders out there, are confused on where we should be. Will we see a double dip? Are we out of the woods? Are companies turning things around? Are companies actually beating earnings by still cutting costs and revenues are not increasing? There a lot of questions out there in everyones minds that still need to be answered and it shows in the choppy markets. No one will take a stance on the direction we should go and it makes for a tought trade.

On top of that, and still showing the inconsistancies that the market is showing, the dollar is becoming a mover as of late, with the yen and euro being so strong. Everything is fine in Europe all of a sudden? Or is it just that much worse in the US and people just dont see it yet?

Are we seeing deflation or inflation? That is another huge underlying question facing traders and others alike. This also does not help with the choppy trading. All of these very disturbing thing happening in our economy makes one think the trade will not lose its appeal to choppiness anytime soon.

However, with these negative jobs numbers we can only hope that some consistancy will come into the markets next week. Even if it is a couple days, I will take it!

Good luck next week traders.

“There’s an important phrase that we use here, and think it’s time that you all learned it. Act as if.” – Boiler Room