Trading Blog: TnT Group

Pretty interesting video. This was posted on youtube about a month ago, so many of you may have seen it, but for those that haven’t it is quite interesting. The video may be a bit over the top, however we have seen what can happen in these markets and with everything that the is happening in the world and what our government is doing these results are  not out of the realm of possibility.

Well the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls number and unemployment rate came out.

A word that I think describes the majority of feelings about this number is shitty….

Let me explain:

Shitty Number 1.There was a ton of talk of a seriously higher nonfarm payrolls number. The initial estimate was for +140K but once the sizzling ADP number came out on Wednesday there was a ton of  ”market talk” increasing that number, some talks even of a +400K number! So to get a number that barely scratched +100K is well shitty. Yes, the unemployment rate went down to 9.4% from a previous 9.8% but people care about how many jobs we are adding monthly. Very very disappointing addition of jobs after such a highly optimistic number was expected. Shitty

Shitty Number 2. I made money off of the initial call of +108K, sold S&P Minis…got out as soon as the 9.4% came out. That was the bottom of the equity markets, because now people are like well 9.4% is a good number, which will lead into shitty number 3 when I get there. The point I am trying to make here is that these markets are going to be confused again on what is going on…was it a good number? Was it a bad number? Should we chop around constantly again? These two numbers are going to lead back into shitty trading markets where things are very unsure and its just back and forth.

Shitty Number 3. This doesnt affect me all that much and doesnt affect my trading much at all but it just is annoying. The talking heads on TV are now going just jabber back and forth about this number and how the 9.4% was good so lets say everything is fine. Just annoying, thats all that is really shitty about it. That is just me though.

I got out of my last trade at 7:32:51… after that 9.4% came out I kind of threw my hands in the air and thought we were just going to see a chopfest the rest of the day. I thought that was what we were going to see last night and I was wrong, so maybe I will be wrong about this too, but I don’t really want to bang my head against the wall if it does happen.

Have a good weekend everyone, and let’s hope all of this nonsense doesn’t cause shitty markets going forward.

Good morning all. I hit on this a litle bit in my webcast. I wanted to go a little more in depth about it though. When I left for vacation over the holidays I left a gold and S&P market that seemed to be somewhat correlated. To say it was a great correlation would be an absolute lie. However it seemed like gold was being traded solely as part of the commodity basket and was rising with oil, copper, rubber, etc which was also followed slowly but surely by equities and the free money that was being pumped into them.

Now after my first day back from vacation and stepping back into these markets it seemed as if there was a definite change of scenery. Overnight gold was getting hit harder than Brett Favre’s head on the frozen field in Minnesota while equities, continuing there impressive day from yesterday, gradually rose higher (as I type S&P 500 Minis are up 4.25 trading 1269.50 while gold is down 14.7 trading 1408.2). This was not a small divergence from what had been happening before I left. This was a farely large change of thought. Are people or the markets now thinking, more than we have in a while, that the economy may be on track?

Below is a daily chart showing the somewhat correlated gold and S&P markets and the slight divergence over the last few days.

The overnight session really made me think that way. We had a ton of risk on trading happening. Minis up 4.25, euro trading up 30 some pips, yen getting hit farely hard down 87 pips, debt (both US and European) down a good amount, and gold getting clobbered. Oil had a tough time doing anything overnight. I understand it. Do they want to rally it because of equities rallying and a slight sell off in the dollar or is it confused because gold is getting pounded. It eventually rallied slightly, as it should if the markets are showing signs of adding risk and the outlook being somewhat positive.

Below is a 5 minute  chart of last night session and the distinctive inverse relationship of gold and Minis.

I am not coming out and saying that our economy is back on track and let the jobs rain down from the heavens. I still whole heartedly believe we are nowhere near where we need to be. My point is to keep an eye out for this inverse type relationship as it will tell a story as to risk on or risk off trade. It is hard to deny how these markets moved last night and is something to pay close attention to moving forward into this new year.

Hello all. A lot of news happening over the weekend and over the night trading session. Make sure to take a look at the nightly webcast below and catch up on what happened. Also posted underneath this blog is both the irishtimes.com article and Ben Bernanke’s actual interview on 60 Minutes. Take a look and get caught up for the morning session. Here’s to good trading.

Happy Monday traders,

Well what a week we have in front of us.  I do not think that in my trading career that I have seen a week like this.

But… Let’s talk about today first.

At 7:30 we seen Personal Income and Personal Spending.  Personal Income was expected at .2%.  It came in at .1%.  Personal Spending was expected at .4% at came out at .2%.  Both of these numbers came out really bad in my eyes.  Seeing personal income go negative is NOT a good thing right now.

Then at 9:00 we had ISM manufacturing and ISM prices paid.  Both of these numbers BEAT.  Looking for 54.0 and we got 56.9.  Then on prices paid we were looking for 70.0 and we got 71.0.

This and on top of the China’s good PMI number ( 54.7  vs expected 53.8) put a good bid to all the equities, and commodities.

That was it as far as numbers and news go for the day.

We did see the market reverse all of the equity move and dollar move the rest of the day.  These type of moves are like groundhog day everyday though….  Everyday feels and looks the same….. It is really really scary….. WE DONT MOVE ANYWHERE… WHAT THE HELL!!!!

We go up 5.00 and then down 7.00 then up 4.00 and then sideways….. It is so frustrating trying to trade any type of longer period…. We have been in the same dam 40 dollar range in minis FOREVER!!!!

Well our saving grace is this week……..  Maybe we can break out of it…… If this week can’t break us out of this range nothing can…… Look at this stuff coming out:

ELECTIONS

QE

RATE DECISIONS (US, JAPAN, ECB, UK)

UNEMPLOYMENT

PLEASE OHHHHH PLEASE LETS SHAKE THIS THING UP!!!!!!

HOW BOUT’ THAT YO MARKET!!!!!!

Brian Tehako here doing a blog on October 19th, 2010.

If any of you watched the web cast on nakerdtrader.com I did talked in depth about today’s events.

I only want to talk about the one main event of the day… CHINA!!!

I was sitting around this morning drinking my HI-C when out of nowhere the minis drop like 3 handles.  I initially thought that someone got the Goldman earnings early.  Because our BLOOMBERG sucks and we get everything late.  But then all of a sudden the headline popped that China raised their rates .25%.  The first time in 3 years…… HOLY CRAP.  This is huge.  On that I was very skeptical of this.  But the one thing I felt confident doing was selling commodities.  This worked really well as they all dumped across the board.

This might be the worst thing that could happen to this market.  China is trying to cool and we are trying to start a fire with handfuls of $100 bills.  Who is gonna win????

It ain’t gonna be the good old USA this time kids.  We are heading into a currency war and a verbal war with China.  Why FU*# with the one country we need to stay afloat.  But being Americans that is what we like to do…. Bite the hand that feeds us.

So here is what I think and here is what we have on.  I think the dollar is gonna gain strength off of this.  The commodities are gonna go into a tail spin.  The equities are gonna stay weak.  If we do not do over a trillion dollars in QE2…… See ya meat….. We are going into a free fall in the equities and commodities…. It’s gonna be a blood bath.

On that happy note…… Happy Trading!!!

Don’t be drinking while your trading!!!

What a fun week….fun if you enjoy watching the dollar get pummeled and buying equities.

QE is still the talk, throw in a bullish German IFO number and we could see this dollar hold below April lows now, possibly even push the yearly lows. Even though I’ve been toying with long dollars with tight stops all week, I don’t think I can take longer term shots on longs until 78.40 level.  The stock markets continue to like this weak dollar and things have been steady in terms of the “psychological trade” we’ve been seeing.  Dollar down, equities up.  It might make sense to some people, but is it really the right thing to do???  And when will dollar weakness become a concern???

Brian Tehako and Jim Bianco had an interesting Bloomberg interview on Friday afternoon and they brought up that very point.  Might be worth a look if you have the same questions we’re asking.

Some other note worthy stuff that’s been going has been in the Metals.  BUY BUY BUY!  We saw some  strong demand in the Copper market earlier in the week based on low supply numbers and the weakening dollar.  Silver is also hitting 5 year highs.  I will continue to be bullish metals until something big changes, but doubt that will happen anytime soon.

Have a good weekend.