Trading Blog: TnT Group

Happy Monday traders,

Well what a week we have in front of us.  I do not think that in my trading career that I have seen a week like this.

But… Let’s talk about today first.

At 7:30 we seen Personal Income and Personal Spending.  Personal Income was expected at .2%.  It came in at .1%.  Personal Spending was expected at .4% at came out at .2%.  Both of these numbers came out really bad in my eyes.  Seeing personal income go negative is NOT a good thing right now.

Then at 9:00 we had ISM manufacturing and ISM prices paid.  Both of these numbers BEAT.  Looking for 54.0 and we got 56.9.  Then on prices paid we were looking for 70.0 and we got 71.0.

This and on top of the China’s good PMI number ( 54.7  vs expected 53.8) put a good bid to all the equities, and commodities.

That was it as far as numbers and news go for the day.

We did see the market reverse all of the equity move and dollar move the rest of the day.  These type of moves are like groundhog day everyday though….  Everyday feels and looks the same….. It is really really scary….. WE DONT MOVE ANYWHERE… WHAT THE HELL!!!!

We go up 5.00 and then down 7.00 then up 4.00 and then sideways….. It is so frustrating trying to trade any type of longer period…. We have been in the same dam 40 dollar range in minis FOREVER!!!!

Well our saving grace is this week……..  Maybe we can break out of it…… If this week can’t break us out of this range nothing can…… Look at this stuff coming out:

ELECTIONS

QE

RATE DECISIONS (US, JAPAN, ECB, UK)

UNEMPLOYMENT

PLEASE OHHHHH PLEASE LETS SHAKE THIS THING UP!!!!!!

HOW BOUT’ THAT YO MARKET!!!!!!

This post is a little late but we will try and update any future television or podcast appearances as soon as we can get them up.

Andrew Tehako here again to take a look at this last week. Since there is another Andy in the office and also another Tehako in here I will start to post by the name Spyder…Long story, but the short of it is that when I was younger I would go make drinks for my brother and his friends and fellow traders. I made one of the guys one too many drinks and he started yelling, ‘Spyder, go get me a drink!” which is the nickname the kid from Goodfellas was called who got the guys drinks. Anyways it stuck and now have Spyder as a nickname.

Looking back this week the market had the FED to look forward to. Like usual the days before the meeting the markets were dead and were not fun to try and be in. FED came out with what seems like some negative views on our economy and that we may not be out of the clear as much as some may think (AKA CNBC). FED decided that it needed more quantitative easing and since rates cannot go any lower they would go into the bond markets to keep rates as low as they can for now.

Markets took these steps as negative realizing that doing this shows that the shit has not quite stopped htting the fan. Equities took it on the chin the next day as well as the euro making a very large move to the downside. We are now back below the 128 handle.  It is crazy that with all that was and still may be going on over there, despite Germany holding them up, the Eurozone is still not that sound and the euro was as high as it was. And now, finally, maybe people will start to realize that we are not that sound over here either!!

There is still absolute fear in these markets even though S&P Minis are trading 1079.00 as I type. Yen hit a 15 year high against the dollar, gold is still over 1200.00 and treasury yields are yielding nearly nothing! Seems like a lot of fear and anxiety too me.

Now Spyder, go get me another drink!

This is Justin and I will be filling in today on the blog. Today we saw some of the same things as we did as yesterday (low volumes). Needless to say traders were being cautious in front of today’s rate decision. Stock markets did get hit a bit after a negative Non-Farm productivity report.  U.S. curves were weak all morning. Prior to the rate decision, we did manage to see a September contract high in the 30 yr. bonds at 12926.

And the FOMC decision is……..UNCHANGED!!! Fed stated that the recovery was more modest than expected. In the near term rates will stay exceptionally low. Debt markets and equity markets took this as a positive and both ripped higher. We continued to make new contract highs in the debt futures and equity indexes held their bid. The U.S. dollar was the one casualty of the fed decision. George Washington took back all the gains from the three day rally.

Don’t stand in the way of a runaway train!

Andrew here.

Wow some low volumes here today.  This is the epitome of a wait and see market.   Everyone is waiting for the FOMC meeting tomorrow and its statement.  Though rates should not change there is much speculation as to whether Fed will reintroduce “Quantitative Easing”. This makes me think of the Albert Einstein quote: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Good luck with this policy adding jobs to the economy.

I don’t expect much movement in the market until then so I will be sitting on my hands tomorrow and waiting for the statement. I suggest you do the same.