August 26th, 2010
Spyder here,
Mark is on vacation for the next few weeks so I will be chiming in for the days he usually writes on the markets.
Overnight seemed to look pretty tame and stayed the same early into the morning. Things seemed to really pick up around 7:00 however. To me it felt as if it was a pretty volatile session.  Jobless Claims came out +473K which was better than the expected +490K  with Continuing Claims coming at at 4456K after an expected 4495K. Now these numbers came out better than expected which the markets took positively, rallying equities to new highs. However, one of the traders that came on CNBC made a very valid point; these economists are beginning to realize the negativity within our economy and are lowering their expectations on these numbers. So a number, such as this Jobless Claims, which beat expectations, it may solely be because of the lowered expectations in the surveys that are given. Markets may have taken that to heart as equities came off the rest of the morning. S&P Minis as I am typing down 2 dollars on the day.
Taking a look at the commodity markets we had a big move up in copper even with the weakness in equities. Â Oil, which once again seems to have a mind of its own most of the time, kept with that MO again today. Seemed weak when the equities were on the highs. When equities came off and went negative oil seemed to be strong. Ultimately you can make money in that market but its all about timing and if you are in it too soon you are as good as dead.
I think looking at the bigger picture you still need to be short equities. One of the risk currencies, the New Zealand Kiwi, has stayed below a daily trend and broken the 6996 level in which it needed to stay above to keep the trend higher.
With that being lower, as shown below, and the Euro/Yen Cross at the level it is at, as Brian has talked about, I think that longer term play is just to be short equities. Not to mention the unstopaBONDS where they are at!
Good luck trading!
