Trading Blog: TnT Group

I mentioned this link in my webcast and it is pasted below. I wanted to say thank you to P_Ambrus on Twitter for shooting me over this link.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/03/478326/the-ecbs-code-words/

It is a great outline of Trichet’s rhetoric and how the ECB has acted after Trichet has used specific words, including “Strong vigilance” and “Heightened alertness”.

Very interesting article so make sure and take a look at it no matter if you trade the European session or the US session.

Andy Turner with you today.

GDP came out above estimates and equities caught a  quick bid after the release.

Equities came under pressure on the open and then things got a little hairy.  University of Michigan was revised a bit lower and Bernanke comments at 9 o’clock combined with some questionable trades in Intel saw equity indexes come under heavy pressure.  But Intel responded by trading higher and was subsequently halted, leading equity indexes to have major reversals and make new highs.

Debt got crushed on Bernanke’s comments to do whatever it takes to keep the economy moving.  Copper is strong again today as is oil.  Minis get above the 1061 area and we could trade higher but the economy is weak.  ISM and employment numbers next week.  The estimates are already pretty low.  This market loves to rally when we “beat” these bad numbers but its not going last forever.

Good afternoon everyone. Lets look at the day so far.

We had Initial Jobless Claims come out +12,000 to 500,000. This is a nine month high and the trend looks to be heading in the wrong direction. Later Philadelphia Factory Index came out at -7.7 it was expected at +7. The bulls once again can not be happy with these numbers.

As one would expect once the numbers came out risk trades were taken off. Stocks and oil sold off and bonds did what they do almost everyday and that’s rally.

Levels I am paying attention to……..

The ES (mini Future) put in a double top at 1098.50 and once it got below 1083.75 the target was 1068.00. We traded down to 1068.50. Looking at this chart today I think this 1064.00 to 1050.75 is a very important area. A weekly settle below 1050.75 could open up a test of the lows at 1002.75.

The Euro so far has held its 127.54-31 area. For now I have resistance at 129.32. A daily settle below 127.31 would open up the 125.31 area to be tested.

Good Luck Trading

Hi everyone. This is Mark and I am filling in today on the blog. With the dollar screaming higher today, everyone is taking off there risky trades. Both European and U.S. stock markets are down, the euro has done nothing but sell off all day and is currently down over 300 pips. Oil has followed the stock market lower and as one would guess bonds are sitting near there highs of the day.

Levels I am paying attention to……..

With the Russell 2000 (mini future) settling below 647.70 yesterday my target is 615.50. The low so far today is 620.10.

With the S&P (mini future) holding 1129.50 I thought it could trade down to 1063.00. Looking at the charts today the 1084.00 level will be some support for the market. If this level can not hold 1063.00 would be next.

On Aug 6th the Euro future traded its 200 day moving average. It has sold off since then and the first daily support I have for it is 127.54 – 127.31 area.