Trading Blog: TnT Group

Pretty interesting video. This was posted on youtube about a month ago, so many of you may have seen it, but for those that haven’t it is quite interesting. The video may be a bit over the top, however we have seen what can happen in these markets and with everything that the is happening in the world and what our government is doing these results are  not out of the realm of possibility.

Well the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls number and unemployment rate came out.

A word that I think describes the majority of feelings about this number is shitty….

Let me explain:

Shitty Number 1.There was a ton of talk of a seriously higher nonfarm payrolls number. The initial estimate was for +140K but once the sizzling ADP number came out on Wednesday there was a ton of  ”market talk” increasing that number, some talks even of a +400K number! So to get a number that barely scratched +100K is well shitty. Yes, the unemployment rate went down to 9.4% from a previous 9.8% but people care about how many jobs we are adding monthly. Very very disappointing addition of jobs after such a highly optimistic number was expected. Shitty

Shitty Number 2. I made money off of the initial call of +108K, sold S&P Minis…got out as soon as the 9.4% came out. That was the bottom of the equity markets, because now people are like well 9.4% is a good number, which will lead into shitty number 3 when I get there. The point I am trying to make here is that these markets are going to be confused again on what is going on…was it a good number? Was it a bad number? Should we chop around constantly again? These two numbers are going to lead back into shitty trading markets where things are very unsure and its just back and forth.

Shitty Number 3. This doesnt affect me all that much and doesnt affect my trading much at all but it just is annoying. The talking heads on TV are now going just jabber back and forth about this number and how the 9.4% was good so lets say everything is fine. Just annoying, thats all that is really shitty about it. That is just me though.

I got out of my last trade at 7:32:51… after that 9.4% came out I kind of threw my hands in the air and thought we were just going to see a chopfest the rest of the day. I thought that was what we were going to see last night and I was wrong, so maybe I will be wrong about this too, but I don’t really want to bang my head against the wall if it does happen.

Have a good weekend everyone, and let’s hope all of this nonsense doesn’t cause shitty markets going forward.

Happy Monday traders,

Well what a week we have in front of us.  I do not think that in my trading career that I have seen a week like this.

But… Let’s talk about today first.

At 7:30 we seen Personal Income and Personal Spending.  Personal Income was expected at .2%.  It came in at .1%.  Personal Spending was expected at .4% at came out at .2%.  Both of these numbers came out really bad in my eyes.  Seeing personal income go negative is NOT a good thing right now.

Then at 9:00 we had ISM manufacturing and ISM prices paid.  Both of these numbers BEAT.  Looking for 54.0 and we got 56.9.  Then on prices paid we were looking for 70.0 and we got 71.0.

This and on top of the China’s good PMI number ( 54.7  vs expected 53.8) put a good bid to all the equities, and commodities.

That was it as far as numbers and news go for the day.

We did see the market reverse all of the equity move and dollar move the rest of the day.  These type of moves are like groundhog day everyday though….  Everyday feels and looks the same….. It is really really scary….. WE DONT MOVE ANYWHERE… WHAT THE HELL!!!!

We go up 5.00 and then down 7.00 then up 4.00 and then sideways….. It is so frustrating trying to trade any type of longer period…. We have been in the same dam 40 dollar range in minis FOREVER!!!!

Well our saving grace is this week……..  Maybe we can break out of it…… If this week can’t break us out of this range nothing can…… Look at this stuff coming out:

ELECTIONS

QE

RATE DECISIONS (US, JAPAN, ECB, UK)

UNEMPLOYMENT

PLEASE OHHHHH PLEASE LETS SHAKE THIS THING UP!!!!!!

HOW BOUT’ THAT YO MARKET!!!!!!

This post is a little late but we will try and update any future television or podcast appearances as soon as we can get them up.

Hi.  My name is John Miller, trader of the TnT Group.  I will be conducting the Friday market commentary from here on out.

Today, as you can tell by the title was US unemployment.  The morning started off quiet with very low equity volume overnight ahead of the US data.  Canadian Unemployment came out unexpectedly worse, to -9.3K from an expectation of +12.5K.  Not a huge drop from the survey but a loss of 139k full-time jobs to be replaced with 130k part-time jobs is a bit concerning.  US unemployment in my opinion was bad but not terrible at -131k from -65k expected.  Another concern was last months revision from -125k to -221k.  A combination of both US and Canadian unemployment figures missing pointed to a more bearish signal for the equity markets and shows the economic “recovery” (if there ever was one in the first place this year) could be slowing.

Post Equity cash open there was a healthy pop in the market, which made holding shorts next to impossible.   Nasdaq buyers came in, most likely short covering from the bearish RIMM news earlier in the week, at one point NQ futures were +3.5 handles!  Basically once that buying stopped the rug got pulled and it was free for all through key support levels in equity outrights as well as spreads.

Not sure how long the selloff will continue going into next week, considering we have a rate decision on Tuesday.  We’ll see.

It’s been fun, have a good weekend, I’m off to go fishin!